Marian Hossa to the Pens – A Much Too Thorough Analysis by a Hockey Outsider
Posted by Blake Murphy on February 27, 2008
This article has been submitted by Stu ‘Daddy’ Wilkinson.
On February 26th, the Pittsburgh Penguins sent two roster players, a high-level prospect by the awesome name of Angelo Esposito, and a first round draft pick to the Atlanta Thrashers for Marian Hossa and Pascal Dupuis. In the short term, meaning the 2007-08 NHL season, this is a good move for the Penguins. Marian Hossa adds even more firepower to the Penguins already impressive offense, and Pittsburgh only subtracts Colby Armstrong and Erik Christensen, two good but not great top nine forwards.
The loss of Colby is especially disheartening to Pens fans now – they’ll definitely miss his physical play and goofy presence off the ice – but after Hossa starts ripping pucks past opposing goalies they’ll be content again. As for Christensen, the man I call “Fake Alex Kovalev” for his sweet wrist shot, well he’ll be missed for his great potential more than his contributions on the ice this year (20 points in 49 games). Both of these guys are tough to part with, but the addition of Hossa makes the losses worthwhile, at least for this year’s playoff run. But the real question for the Pens is not how this trade affects the team this season, but rather how it affects the team in the long run.
Looking at the long term implications of this trade makes things a little more complicated. The Pens got better for this season, nobody can debate that. But if Hossa is a rental player and will be out of Pittsburgh once he becomes an unrestricted free agent on July 1st, this deal is bad for the Pens. Sure, if they win the Stanley Cup this season, it’s a good deal. But the odds are that the Pens won’t win it all this year, as crazy as that sounds. Renting Hossa for half a season when the team probably won’t win the Cup isn’t worth losing the package of Colby, Christensen, Angelo, and a late first round pick, and the Penguins brass knows this, or at least I hope they do.
I trust Ray Shero and Mario Lemieux, the two most important members of the Pens front office. I trust that they believe in what I just tried to explain – the Hossa trade is bad for the Pens in the long term if the team can’t keep him past the 2008 Stanley Cup Playoffs. I trust that they know the Pens probably won’t win a Stanley Cup this year, even with Hossa on Crosby’s wing. The trade would be good if the Pens gave up less, but they didn’t. They gave up a lot, and they knew they were giving up a lot.
So here’s my theory, based on the assumption that Shero and Lemieux are on the same page as I am. The Hossa trade doesn’t just signal that the Pens are ready to be serious Cup contenders this year. The Hossa trade signals that the Pens are ready to be a “cap team” in the NHL for the foreseeable future, meaning that they’re ready to spend the maximum allowed by the league’s salary cap on their payroll. If you don’t follow the Pens, you might not see this as a big deal, but it is. This is a team that’s only a few years removed from bankruptcy. This is a team that’s only a few years removed from thinking about sending Marc-Andre Fleury back to juniors to avoid paying him a performance-based bonus his rookie year. This is a team that’s only one year removed from being dangerously close to moving to Kansas City.
The Pens are ready to make the move from a struggling small market team to a team ready to spend as much as the Red Wings, Maple Leafs, and Rangers. How do I know this? I know this because Shero and Lemieux wouldn’t give up way too much for a rental player, even if the rental player is Marian Hossa. Shero and Lemieux gave up a lot for Hossa because they’re going to extend his contract before he becomes a free agent. They’re going to sign him for around four years and $32 million, and they’re going to sign Evgeni Malkin (a restricted free agent in 2010) to a huge extension, too. They’ll probably even give Ryan Malone, Malkin’s linemate, a hefty raise to keep him in the fold. Who knows, Ty Conklin might even come back with a fatter wallet next year.
The bottom line is that the NHL’s salary cap is skyrocketing – it’ll be at around $53 million next season. I am too lazy to run all the numbers for the Pens to see if everything I just suggested can actually work out, so I’ll just assume it will. Basically, after the Hossa and Hal Gill trades, the Pens will have about $3 million in cap room left over this season. With the contracts that the team has coming off the books in 2008 and 2009 - Gary Roberts at $2.5M, Mark Eaton at $1.6M, Gill at $2.1M, and Darryl Sydor at $2.5M, for a grand total of around $8.7m – the Pens will surely be able to accommodate the players I mentioned above and stay (barely) under the salary cap.
So the moral of the story is this – the Pens know that they gave up way too much for Hossa to only keep him for this year. The Pens gave up a lot for Hossa because they want to sign him to a three or four year extension before he hits the open market this summer. This means that the Penguins are not only going to be really good for the next three or four years, it means they’re going to be really good for the next twenty. The Pens are ready to spend what’s necessary to keep great talent around their elite core.
You, the intelligent and inquisitive reader, are probably asking how this team, a team that came so close to being the latest small-market squad to move south of the Mason-Dixon Line, can suddenly become a big spender. The answer, of course, is Sidney Crosby.
This article has been submitted by Stu ‘Daddy’ Wilkinson.
February 28, 2008 at 2:00 am
How did you get that picture of my rec room?
February 28, 2008 at 9:50 am
Oh how I love being a Pens fan these days
February 28, 2008 at 12:43 pm
please……you estimated the numbers on the cap…there is no way that the pens can keep crosby, malkin, and hossa…why would hossa sign an extension before the season is over? he has said multiple times he wants to test the market. you know what “testing” the market means? it means going to the highest bidder. now tell me why hossa would sign a contract for 8 mill a year for 4 years when a player of his caliber could easily get 9mill and possibly sign for close to 8 years? that makes no sense for hossa at all. and if the pens magically are able to sign hossa, then goodbye to malkin. malkin is going to want 9 a year for sure.
so the most realistic scenario for the pens is getting to the second round this year, losing, not signing hossa to that mediocre contract you suggested, signing malkin to an extension, and then realizing they have to fill there roster with no names from their ahl affiliate because they dont have any money because malkin will be a lot, and they traded 2 good players and an awesome prospect who coulda been around for quite awhile, plus not a lot of future help because they foolishly traded a 1st rounder.
their management is gonna run this organization into the ground again, just watch. say hello kansas city!
February 28, 2008 at 12:43 pm
please……you estimated the numbers on the cap…there is no way that the pens can keep crosby, malkin, and hossa…why would hossa sign an extension before the season is over? he has said multiple times he wants to test the market. you know what “testing” the market means? it means going to the highest bidder. now tell me why hossa would sign a contract for 8 mill a year for 4 years when a player of his caliber could easily get 9mill and possibly sign for close to 8 years? that makes no sense for hossa at all. and if the pens magically are able to sign hossa, then goodbye to malkin. malkin is going to want 9 a year for sure.
so the most realistic scenario for the pens is getting to the second round this year, losing, not signing hossa to that mediocre contract you suggested, signing malkin to an extension, and then realizing they have to fill there roster with no names from their ahl affiliate because they dont have any money because malkin will be a lot, and they traded 2 good players and an awesome prospect who coulda been around for quite awhile, plus not a lot of future help because they foolishly traded a 1st rounder.
their management is gonna run this organization into the ground again, just watch. say hello kansas city!
February 28, 2008 at 1:09 pm
First, the chance of the Pens moving anytime soon is as probable as Rosie O’Donnell winning a swimsuit competition.A team with a new stadium and oh ya Sidney Crosby ain’t going nowhere.Steve you are right about Hossa testing the market however. There’s no way he’s going to take a 3 or 4 yr extension from the Pens. He’s gonna sign a monster 7 or 8 yr deal somewhere else. The main thing to remember here is that the Pens are the best talent in the East this year!THey have a few holes but who doesn’t in the East? The time to win is now and STILL years down the road because of all the young talent they STILL have. I love Armstrong and Christensen but im telling ya if u actually watched Pens games, they dont stand out at all. They have players like my boy Tim Brent in the minors who could fit right in and not lose too much.Don’t fall in love with Espisito either, bad attitude and will never be a star in the NHL.
February 28, 2008 at 2:15 pm
Steve - Hossa’s going to want to get paid, you’re right on that, but I don’t know about an 8 year deal at 9m per. I’m saying that the Pens are going to be willing to pay him 7.5 to 8m on a relatively short term deal, and that the expanding cap will allow them to remain competitive while still committing a lot of coin to Hossa, Malkin, and Sid.
I don’t think you have a good grasp on the depth of the Pens roster. You talk about AHL scrubs surrounding Sid and Geno, but I don’t see it. Ryan Malone and Petey Sykora aren’t going anywhere, and they both have a shot at 30 goals this season. If Hossa does leave after this year, the Pens will just go out and sign a winger for Sid at around 4 or 5m per year, and throw a “scrub” like Ty Kennedy, or even this Tim Brent guy (no idea who that is) on the line with him.
Don’t worry about the Pens, they’ll be just fine.
February 28, 2008 at 6:21 pm
maybe, but the cap expanding is not guaranteed, it could possibly go down (not likely) or even stay the same…although it is expected to rise a little bit next year. well, even if hossa doesnt resign in the summer with the pens, it makes them a bit more entertaining to watch for now.
i guess i have to admit i wanted my team (wings) to pick him up in a sign and trade kinda deal, even tho we would have been right against the cap, and with zetts new contract coming up woulda been foolish…still getting used to the cap…i think it effected the wings more than any other team..in the past i think we woulda picked him up without even thinking about it.
sigh….
March 13, 2008 at 12:18 pm
Just one thing.. Steve I dunno where you heard Hossa is after money. If he really wanted to be with the “highest bidder” as you said he would have stayed in atlanta, they were offering him a huge contract for multiple seasons. But Hossa CLEARLY stated he is not after money and his priority is the stanley cup. He just wants to be with the best team even if it costs him a few dollars a year, not messing around at 14th place in the conference although with a huge mega ultra contract.. I hope he will stay with Pens after this season, even if they dont win this year they got a real perspective for next “couple” of seasons..