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Archive for November, 2010

Raptors Republic Article - The Right Reasons to Start Jerryd Bayless

I wrote a piece for Raptors Republic, positing that Bayless should be moved to the starting unit, not because he’s better than Jose, but because it makes sense for the output of both players and the team.

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An Illustration of Parity in the NFL

The NFL’s goal has always been league-wide parity. While there are obviously a few bright and dark examples to the contrary, in general the middle of the league enjoys a good amount of movement and change. In the longer-term, teams that don’t fall victim to the regression-to-the-mean effect of the NFL’s parity mission stick out as those that are managed well (New England and Indianapolis are the most obvious) or managed poorly (Oakland and Kansas City come to mind, but they appear to be turning the corner, so we’ll allow the Lions the dishonor of being our example).

The league encourages parity in a number of ways. The salary cap and draft are both designed to allow all teams an equal field of competition, giving all teams equal access to free agents and access to rookies in reverse priority of their current standing. By and large, this works. Again, there are examples to the contrary on either end of the spectrum, but parity in the NFL at least passes the sniff test.

For Vegas, this is wonderful. Bill Simmons is constantly updating his Gambling Manifesto (now on version 314.2-B I believe) to reflect the ever-changing nature of the NFL. It makes it extremely difficult for the run-of-the-mill gambler, and means any ‘edge’ you can gain in betting is exponentially valuable. In fact, in my Against the Spread picks pool, which is both high stakes ($100 entry) and highly competitive (87 participants, all active), the leader sits at 100-60, a respectable 62.5% win clip. However, the gap between fourth place (89-71, 53.8%) and 86th (69-91, 43.1%) is pretty narrow for a deep pool in Week 12. In a pool where the top seven get paid, the gap between fourth and 45th (the 50.0% cut-off, 80-80) is excruciatingly narrow. One bad week can cost you, and one good week can elevate you much further than you would expect.
More after the jump!

Raptors Republic Article - Wizards 109, Raptors 100, Nov 16 Post-Game

Raptors/Wizards post-game by yours truly after the Raps let a winnable one slip away early and can’t catch up.

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Raptors Republic Article - Warriors 109, Raptors 102, Nov 8 Post-Game

Back at it (for what seems like the millionth time), doing some post-game and op-ed work for Raptors Republic, and hopefully on here independently as well. Keep checking me out, and as for the article…

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